Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Company dynamic comment: Double-segment moving sales surpassed expectations and light equipment entered the fourth quarter

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Company dynamic comment: Double-segment moving sales surpassed expectations and light equipment entered the fourth quarter

Matters: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and realized revenue of 91 from January to September.

300 million, an increase of 25 previously.

7%.

Net profit attributable to mother 17.

0 ppm, an increase of 33 per year (considering gradual adjustment).

4%, of which 27 achieved revenue in 3Q19.

5 ppm, an increase of 34 per year (considering gradual adjustment).

5%, net profit attributable to mother 5.

1 billion percent growth of 53.

6%.

Investment point of view: The income performance was better than expected.

The higher-than-expected revenue was due to smooth terminal sales, the Q3 of product lines such as blue and white, and configuration 西安耍耍网 wine further accelerated. The higher-than-expected performance was mainly due to the higher-than-expected increase in revenue and a sharp decline in sales expense ratio.

Each product line continues to grow rapidly, and nationalization continues to advance.

Fenjiu achieved revenue of 79 from January to September.

90,000 yuan, it is estimated that the long-term growth is about 26%, and Q3 achieved revenue of 23.

It is estimated that the annual growth rate will be about 35%, including the third-quarter increase of 30% in B & B, the 50% increase in Bfen, and the 20% increase in Laobaifen; from January to September, the number of wines was 3.

6 ‰, an increase of 82% in ten years, Q3 achieved revenue1.

600 million, an increase of 238% over the same period; series of 杭州夜生活网 wine from January to September to achieve revenue 6.

900 million, of which Xinghuacun’s revenue exceeded 400 million, an annual increase of about 80%, Fen brand re-listed in September, with little new contribution.

The company’s Q3 province saw steady growth and achieved revenue of 13.

300 million, a growth rate of 3%, and the growth outside the province further accelerated to achieve revenue of 14.

0 billion, a growth rate of 140%, and the nationalization is progressing smoothly.

Advance receipts increased month-on-month, and cash flow performance was beautiful.

At the end of the third quarter, the company received advance payment 18.

400 million, an increase of 3 from the previous month.

600 million, first and foremost, the terminal’s sales are smooth, and dealers are actively paying.

Sales of goods in the third quarter of 19, labor received cash29.

6 trillion, an increase of 52 in ten years.

The increase of 6% was mainly due to the decrease in the amount of notes receivable from the same period of the previous year, and the increase in advances from previous year;

1 trillion, a year down -43.

7%, preliminary is the increase in budget expenditure.

The sales expense ratio continued to decrease and the thrust net interest rate increased. The adjustment of the product structure caused a single quarter of gross profit margin to fluctuate.

The company’s net interest rate for the third quarter of 19 was 19.

9%, increase by 1 every year.

5pct, mainly due to a significant decrease in the increase in sales expense ratio.

5 points to 10.

1%, the company’s basic market in the first half of the initial expenditure, Q3 conference costs further stricter caused a single third quarter sales expense ratio decreased significantly.

Management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) for the third quarter of 19 7.3%, a year increase of 0.

3pct, little change.

Finance costs are -0.

46%, -0 per year.

2pct.

Business taxes and surcharges 19.

0%, increase by 1 a year.

5 points.

Gross profit margin in the third quarter of 19 was 63.

9%, down 4 each year.

9pct, mainly due to the rapid growth of low-priced liquor such as Bentley, blended liquor, resulting in quarterly changes.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, considering the acquisition of the production side by the Fen brand, the preparation of goods for the Spring Festival is advanced, and the gross profit rate will continue to maintain a growing trend. In order to expand the market and stimulate demand for sales, it is expected that the sales expense ratio will improve Q3.

Intensive farming terminal, in conjunction with the pulling policy, double-joint sales were smooth and inventory returned to a low level.

From January to September, the company added 93 dealers, a significant decrease compared with the same period of last year. The company’s strength is focused on improving the thrust of dealers and improving the quality of terminals.

During the double festival, the sales were smooth, the inventory was good, and the dealers were active in making payments. In the fourth quarter, they were lightly loaded. There is no need to worry about completing this task.

Investment suggestion: The company is still in the golden stage of national expansion in 2019, with continuous progress in channel construction and accelerated release of brand potential. We are optimistic about the company’s future development potential and raise its profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 19-21 will be $ 11.9 billion /139 ‰ / 161 ‰, with an annual increase of 27% / 17% / 15%; net profit increased by 34% / 25% / 22%; corresponding PE is 38/31/25 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Macro fluctuations exceed expectations, food safety issues